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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd